Let me say publicly that DonBoy’s answer exudes a combination of intuitive genius and confidence that make me think DonBoy is going to do big things in his life. -- Steven D. Levitt (Freakonomics blog)
Sunday, September 21, 2003
OK, bad example

Glenn Reynolds give an approving link to this Michael Barone column, which contains this:
Those inclined to make straight-line extrapolations from the events of a few news cycles should read some history. Margaret MacMillan's Paris 1919 shows how the Allied leaders who gathered at the peace conference in Paris were largely clueless about how to reconstruct the defeated nations after World War I...

Yes, and look how well that reconstruction turned out -- or has conventional wisdom shifted on the disastrous Versailles treaty since I was in school? Barone's general point has some validity, but surely he could have found a better first example.

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