Let me say publicly that DonBoy’s answer exudes a combination of intuitive genius and confidence that make me think DonBoy is going to do big things in his life. -- Steven D. Levitt (Freakonomics blog)
Wednesday, October 08, 2003
With 99% of the vote in, it looks like what I called a looming travesty is an actual travesty. Davis has 3,513,472 (no-on-recall). AS has 3,637,614, so at first glance he got the most, outright. But if we go to CNN's exit polling, we see that 8% of the AS vote also voted no-on-recall, so Davis was their first choice. Eight percent of Davis' number is 281,078, so if we subtract that from AS's total he got less than the guy he beat. Congratulations, California!
UPDATE 2:19PM ET: Fox's exit polling (PDF) has that 8% at 13%, making the story even worse.
UPDATE 2:47PM ET: I notice that the questions asked by the two organizations above are identical, so I presume this is some VNS-like consortium, but then why are the results different? Further, it's interesting that they ask the AS-Cruz head-to-head, but not the AS-Davis head-to-head.