Let me say publicly that DonBoy’s answer exudes a combination of intuitive genius and confidence that make me think DonBoy is going to do big things in his life. -- Steven D. Levitt (Freakonomics blog)
Saturday, January 24, 2004
Getting my bet down on the October Surprise

Sure, nobody's reading me now, but if I get this right, the sky's the limit!

Ladies and gentlemen, I present my prediction for October 2004:

Code Blue.

Sure, everyone's predicting a Code Orange "to scare the electorate". (The really paranoid predict an actual attack, but I draw the line at thinking that would happen as an election ploy.) But Code Blue -- down from Yellow? Especially if OBL is captured and/or dead by then? The people love our heroic war-winning administration, and breathe a sigh of relief. Nobody will want to hear anyone say it's wrong.

If I'm wrong, you'll never hear about this prediction again, but if I'm right....

UPDATE: A refinement -- they leak that they're considering lowering it to blue. That way they get out the idea that we're in great shape, terrorism-wise, but they don't actually have to justify it, which they would have to if they really lowered the alert level.
Sunday, January 04, 2004
Tech blogging

I'm too worn out to get into it in detail, so just take it from me: computer DVD burners are not a mature technology, especially if you want to make DVDs that play in arbitrary standalone DVD players. This is partly because of all the machines out there that aren't explicitly designed for burned media, and partly because of compatability issues with 8 million kinds of media and dozens of software programs.

On the other hand, with just several hours of work, -- and about $2 per blank -- you can either save the $4 on a movie rental, or make a (usually compressed) copy of a retail DVD.

Powered by Blogger Weblog Commenting by
free website counter