Let me say publicly that DonBoy’s answer exudes a combination of intuitive genius and confidence that make me think DonBoy is going to do big things in his life. -- Steven D. Levitt (Freakonomics blog)
Saturday, January 24, 2004
Getting my bet down on the October Surprise

Sure, nobody's reading me now, but if I get this right, the sky's the limit!

Ladies and gentlemen, I present my prediction for October 2004:

Code Blue.

Sure, everyone's predicting a Code Orange "to scare the electorate". (The really paranoid predict an actual attack, but I draw the line at thinking that would happen as an election ploy.) But Code Blue -- down from Yellow? Especially if OBL is captured and/or dead by then? The people love our heroic war-winning administration, and breathe a sigh of relief. Nobody will want to hear anyone say it's wrong.

If I'm wrong, you'll never hear about this prediction again, but if I'm right....

UPDATE: A refinement -- they leak that they're considering lowering it to blue. That way they get out the idea that we're in great shape, terrorism-wise, but they don't actually have to justify it, which they would have to if they really lowered the alert level.

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