Let me say publicly that DonBoy’s answer exudes a combination of intuitive genius and confidence that make me think DonBoy is going to do big things in his life. -- Steven D. Levitt (Freakonomics blog)
Friday, July 09, 2004
Kinda Dark in Here -- I'll Feel Better If I Whistle

Conventional left-blogistan wisdom is that today's terror..whatever-it-is, is brought on solely by the desire to take attention away from other things, such as the Edward nomination. Note archetypal example at Seeing the Forest -- he's by no means the only one, of course.
As I said before, in politics timing is everything!

Watching CNN, the news of this new "terror threat" followed a new Bush commercial, talking about the terror threat and Bush's magnificent God-like leadership, and INTERRUPTED a story about Edwards' work for injured victims before running for the Senate.

The Bush campaign strategy is becoming clearer and clearer. Ken Lay indicted just as Edwards is chosen. (Don't expect a conviction.) Expect big news during the Democratic convention. And, of course, in October watch your backs.
Well, I would never go so far as to claim that the terror warnings are not influenced by politics -- not with this bunch. But the claim that the warnings specifically come when Bush needs a bump doesn't persuade me, for two reasons.

First, you can say that it always comes when there's been bad news for Bush. But that's hard to falsify, because the last six months or so have been a constant stream of bad news for Bush, so there's not much in the way of points that could disconfirm your suspicion. (I haven't actually gone over day-by-day summaries, but between Iraq, the 9/11 comission, and the rapid nomination of non-extreme boring old JK, I think this is defensible.)

Second, the last time we went to actual Orange Alert was exactly 7 days after Saddam was captured. You'd think that if ever there was a time when they wouldn't need an artificial bump, that would be it.

One extra thought does occur to me: I bet that if there is politicization of all this, the Bushies really, really, don't want there to be attack at the actual Democratic convention; what, after all, would we conclude from an AQ attack on the Dems, especially if one doesn't come against the Repubs in NY? Might some conclude that AQ wants Bush to win? Oh my.

And finally, the idea that the Bushies are hoping for an attack in October is silly, because they might die. Unless they do get the magic "time, place and manner" information, but I wouldn't bet on it, and I don't think they will either.

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